Seasonal Blip or Calgary Market Recovery?
MLS sales for metro Calgary in September 2010 improved slightly over August numbers but continued to reflect buyer's general lack of confidence in the global economic recovery. Canadians are increasingly worried that the U.S. economy is poised to sink back into a "double dip" recessionary period. I attribute the increase in Calgary real estate sales to normal September buyers returning to the market. Metro Calgary property sales for September totaled 1,231, a 7.6% increase from last month and a 28% drop from last September (combined SF Calgary homes and condos):
- SF (metro houses) Calgary sales totaled 958, a drop of 23.8% vs Sep 2009: (1,257 SF sales in Sep 2009)
- Metro Calgary condo sales totaled 366, a drop of 36.9% vs Sep 2009: (580 condo sales in Sep 2009)
Calgary Real Estate Prices
September 2010 sale prices for SF homes in Calgary averaged $460,278, a 3.3% increase from August 2010 and a 0.3% increase from last September.
- Median sale price for SF Calgary homes for September 2010 was $390,000 vs $395,000 last month and $399,900 in September 2009
- Average sale price for Calgary condos for September 2010 was $284,028 vs $286,384 last month and $290,253 in September 2009
- Median sale price for Calgary condos for September 2010 was $265,000 vs $260,000 last month and $265,000 in September 2009
Calgary Market: Where to from here?
There are plenty of opinions as to where prices in the Calgary (Canadian) real estate market are headed:
- Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary, expects the Calgary real estate market to continue to cool until the economy picks up
- Last week the CIBC release a report suggesting the recovery in Alberta's labour market was lagging and that the entire country's housing sector is susceptible to further market weakness (Alberta market 12.5% higher than what the bank calls "fair market value")
I'm not brave (or bold) enough to suggest anything as dramatic as what the CIBC has. I can tell you that here in Calgary - in a normal market - property prices will often drop by as much as 5% between fall and winter selling seasons (October through February). A 12.5% downward adjustment to the current median price of Calgary homes would take us back to a [median] price level of $341,000, which is what Calgary homes sold for pre-2006 *see median price graph above*.
As always, your thoughts and opinions are welcomed. We'd be happy to discuss this or answer any questions on Calgary real estate - please feel free to contact me below, or if you'd like to chat with me please page me directly through the office @ 403-252-5900
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